Sunday, March 3, 2013

Southern Regional Championship

Pool Play Standings

1. Florida 6-0 +460
2. South Florida +490
3. Tennessee Tech 4-2 +280
4. College of Charleston 3-3 -160
5. Ringling 2-4 -140
6. Brevard 1-5 -240
7. Florida International 0-6 -700

Note: Ringling forfeited their game against USF. I gave USF a 100 point win and Ringling a 100 point loss. I am not sure if the Southern Regional Committee did something similar, but I thought this was most fair.

1. Miami 5-0 +740
2. Southern Miss 4-1 +20
3 Florida State 3-2 +90
4. South Carolina 1-4 -260
5. FAU 1-4 -270
6. Winthrop 1-4 -320

Note: the Southern Regional Committee has FAU in the 4th spot and thus advancing to bracket play. I have double checked point differential according to a google doc posted by IQA scores but South Carolina's point differential is better than FAU. Also, South Carolina beat FAU, so head to head goes to South Carolina. Hopefully, this will be resolved and the right team will play Florida in the first round of bracket play and the right team will be eliminated.

1. Florida
8. FAU

4. Tennessee Tech
5. Florida State

2. Miami
7. College of Charleston

3. South Florida
6. Southern Miss

Prediction: Florida and Miami will easily advance. South Florida will have to play hard and make sure USM can't get a come from behind snatch, but USF will advance too. Tennessee Tech and Florida State is a toss up right now. Based on the results of the Rocky Rumble though, (FSU won), FSU will win, clinching their spot at WC6.
In the losers' bracket games, Tennessee Tech will beat FAU easily. FAU is the weakest team that advanced going 1-4 with a -270 point differential. Southern Miss will beat College of Charleston too as CoC has the second worst point differential that advanced. (-240)
In the semifinals, I have Miami beating USF with the help of a David Moyer snatch and great chasing from former Bull, Sean Pagoda. Florida, who had lower expectations for this tournament, (low expectations is just how the Gators like it) will ride a 7-0 record and number one seed all the way to the finals past FSU.
In the finals, I expect no let-down from the Gators. Like the final against Middlebury, Miami, a superior team will probably jump out to a lead: 30 or even 40-0. But I bet the Gators will claw back into the game with the help of Dre Clemens. I don't think it will be enough though. I have Miami 130*-70.

1 comment:

  1. The tiebreaker was adjusted point differential, not raw point differential. If the point differential of a match exceeded 100, a square root was applied to the points in excess of 100 (i.e. if the raw point differential was 110, the adjusted point differential was 100+sqrt(10) = 103).

    If you apply adjusted point differential, FAU wins the tiebreaker -199 to -238.